Tairāwhiti data, 25 August 2023
Covid decline continues; pattern of Campylobacter and Giardia notifications
Last week, the last Covid restrictions were removed by government: mask mandate in health care and 7-day isolation for cases, effective 15 August. The advice now is ‘stay home for five days’ and masks in health settings are still recommended. The loss of mandates could lead to more spread but also less testing and reporting; with the latter more likely to dominate. Data show continued decline:
Covid-19 cases in Tairāwhiti: The drop reported last week continues with 72 cases reported for the week ending Thursday 24 August, compared to 114 and 166 cases for last week and the week before, respectively. The 7-day average dropped to 10 cases daily from a peak of 25 on 9 August and 16 last week.
The daily case count for Friday to Thursday: 12, 9, 4, 14, 13, 11, 9. The low reported on Sunday is more prominent than the Monday bump. Notifications were were based on RAT (self-reported) except for three by PCR test.
There were two Covid hospitalisations this week; same as last week.
Wastewater data for week ending 20 August shows a rise in wastewater compared to decline in cases. Nationally, the same pattern was seen of a rise in wastewater levels while cases dropped. While this could reflect lower reporting after dropping legal requirements,
National acute respiratory illness surveillance for the week ending 20 August continues to show relatively low levels for the time of year, with influenza the leading virus. Symptom surveillance in FluTracking continues its August increase, but less in the last week:
Other notifications
August has been quiet, with first and only notifications on 23 August: two enteric infections, one each of Giardia and Campylobacter. How common are these low August data?
Campylobacter notification data since 1997 shows more in 2023 remains than in recent years at the same time, despite only one notification in August:
We have not had an August (red) without any Campylobacter notifications except in 2007. However, there have been 14 out of the 320 months (4%) since 1997 with no Campylobacter notifications. Of these 14 months with zero Campylobacter, nine were in 3 years (2007, 2009, 2012) and the remainder were single months in 1997, 1999, 2018, and 2019. Most of these were in the middle of the year, reflecting seasonality:
Giardia is reported less often with zero cases in 24% of months since 1997. There have been a recent increase with a peak in 2016, and higher levels since. The 2023 cases are tracking higher than 2022, but less than before 2020, and similar to 2020 and 2021:
The monthly pattern does not show as clear a seasonal pattern, with cases declining from June to September:
Next week
As always, look forward to your feedback and suggestions; and any questions on the data. Thank-you!